Saturday, October 23, 2004
I was just thinking about the election and the chances that Bush wins again with less than a majority of the popular vote: That would mark the fourth consecutive presidential election (Clinton '92/'96 and Bush '00/'04) without a majority of the popular vote. Freaky.
I also have been thinking on the red state-blue state division. It occurs to me that the nation may become more red state in the coming two decades because of decisions to have children. Specifically, if red states are more "family-oriented" and express that by having larger families on average, could this cement their majorities? Could red state people in blue states (e.g., rural New England) nudge things to the red side?
To the extent that the blue states are more urban and urbane, I would expect them to have lower birth rates and smaller family sizes, limiting their capacity to shape statewide elections. The only remaining hope for the blue states is immigration (new immigrants tend to have larger families and be more Democratic leaning) and migration of the blue-thinking people from red states. The problem is red states can expand their size more quickly.
On the other hand, it's not a lock that every child will share their parents' political leanings, but I would bet it's correlated enough to lock us into a red state future.
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