Friday, July 30, 2004
"I Can Read a Map"
To quote Gen. Patton in Patton. The L.A. Times has an interactive electoral map linked to the latest polling data for each state. If their allocations of states are correct, then it looks like Kerry will win with the following combination of unclaimed states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, and either Iowa or Oregon. In all of those states except Iowa, Kerry leads, and they all voted for Gore (and Clinton). Slim, but enough.
Still, though Kerry ignored my advice, I hold to my Ohio Valley-Lower Mississippi Valley theory. He obviously will make plays in Missouri and Iowa, but he should not write off Tennessee or Arkansas completely. Or, more specifically, he should deploy Edwards frequently, especially in east Tennessee, which was the difference for Tennessee's Gov. Bredesen in his campaign in '02 when Democrats were trounced throughout the nation.
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