Things that Robert is thinking about that keep him from accomplishing anything.

 
Broken News
First, the new Slant is out, and yours truly has the lead article. We were able to catch some of the things I worried about and pulled them from the article. Otherwise, it retains its proper political incorrectness.

Second, turns out my new freelance gig for the Tennessean has become an actual "race for the scoop" with the Nashville Scene. I like my odds in the race; the story behind the story will make for interesting blogging after the article(s) come out.

Oh yeah, I knew there was something else. Silly Monkey Productions, an indie film startup that I'm helping bankroll, started shooting the short, Date of the Dragons. Check out the site when you get a chance.
posted by RSaunders at 12:50 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
Just Too Cool
A study I've always wanted to conduct is whether betting lines on football games inadvertently lead to profit-making decision rules like "always bet the favorite (or underdog)" or "always the home (or away)" team. Of course, the answer is "NO" because then bookmakers would lose money because anybody could follow that stupid of a strategy. But, the fantasy exists that you could still outsmart the bookmakers with some relatively simple set of rules.

Well, one of the coolest economists in the country, Steven Levitt at the University of Chicago, has done this study (and more) and confirms that the answer is NO, but also presents some interesting information that suggests setting the betting line is about more than equalizing wagers on both sides of the line. This had been my traditional understanding: the betting line is a price such that equal dollars are bet on each side; if a flood of new money comes in on one side or another, the line will change to make the other side more favorable.

In fact, it turns out that bookmakers are quite skilled at picking a line such that they earn higher returns than just the vigorish (the commission on losing bets) and that bettors in this particular sample do no better than flipping a coin. This is not to say that there are not particular opportunities to beat the bookmaker, just not enough to make it profitable.

If you get a chance, read his other stuff; he does really amazing work.
posted by RSaunders at 4:33 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
Is He Promising Us a Huge Settlement If He Wins?
I'm trying to figure out the mystery that is the John Edwards campaign. Where the hell did this guy come from? People talk about that he's good looking. Is he that good looking? Did this suddenly become "Win a Date with John Edwards"?

What is equally perplexing is the implosion of the Dean campaign. Some obvious negatives: two hugely unflattering profiles 10 days before the Iowa vote; the tyranny of late night television and 24-hr cable news; and, poor PR work.

However, something more important may be at work, if we look back at recent third party candidates. In 2000, Nader seemed to be holding steady at 8% nationwide, but then he suddenly dropped right before the election to about 2-3%. Similar things happened with Perot in '92 and '96. While the '92 decline was due in part to his dropping in and out of the race, they're both instructive because they show a similar pattern of dropoff before the election. And, it's not a purely Democratic thing. Why would the Republicans think Bob Dole would be a good choice to face Clinton? I'm not sure how to factor in McCain and Buchanan--the former is largely due to the Rove factor in S.C., the latter is due in part to financing--but I'm not willing to chalk it up to simple campaigning.

The inference I draw is that a significant chunk of the American electorate is voting out of fear. Fear of what, I'm not sure. Fear of a candidate that they don't want to win ultimately winning. Fear that they will pick somebody who is unelectable. Fear that they are doing the wrong thing. Fear that they won't be in the majority. Whatever the fear is, as people analyze the strength of candidates infuture campaigns, they're going to need a huge depreciation allowance. It's really quite depressing. If only there were a Patton around to stomp in and smack them around. Perhaps that was the role Dean was auditioning for in Iowa.

Update: While flipping through Baseball Musings, I followed a few links to this blog: Marginal Revolution, which links to another article that is related to this very topic.
posted by RSaunders at 5:28 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
Writing Updates
I'm starting to get some serious freelance writing here in the 'ville. A tidbit on barbecue I just wrote looks like it will be a big Foods feature come May. Some other stuff may be coming down the pike.

Also, a new Slant comes out Wednesday. Depending on what version of my article makes it to print, I may post a disclaimer or my original version here.
posted by RSaunders at 5:09 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
The Genocide Exhibit...aka The Creek Nation, 1790
A weekend in Birmingham and a visit to the museum allowed us to tour a Creek Indian village and gave history about the Indians of the southeast. It wasn't nearly as ghoulish as the title suggests, I just always think that whenever I see Indian exhibits.

One of my museum pet peeves, especially history museums, is that they are created like a giant science fair project. A lot of simple words, nicely lettered around a fancy picture or object that you can't touch. Some of that is necessary for obvious reasons (e.g., something is too old or valuable to touch). And I guess audiophones provide a little more narrative.

What I like though is when they create scenes that let you participate in some way. Maybe they build a tipi in the room, and you can sit in there. This exhibit was really neat because (a) they let you experience stuff like that while doing a nice job of maximimizing a small space and (b) they had activities you could do (or kids could do if you were too embarrassed to try). For example, they had a "make a clay pot" area and a "place beads on the weaving and match the pattern" and simple versions of Indian games that you could play in the room. It was really quite impressive, considering they had not much more space than my maybe 800 sq.ft. apartment.
posted by RSaunders at 5:06 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
Corporate Crime
In case you recently have been indicted for fraud charges or fired for taking kickbacks from the Kuwaiti government, here's a little helpful information on where you can get a new start on life in corporate crime. Interesting that Tennessee only manages to rank 19^th. See where your state ranks.
posted by RSaunders at 11:14 AM ⇒ (0) comments

 
Protesting
This looked like a cool protest in Chicago.

I have been tinkering with another idea--placing stamps on letters upside down--as a protest idea. Most generic stamps are of the American flag, and the flag flown upside down is a distress signal. I don't know that anyone would notice, but it is definitely a way to make your symbolic stand against the war. I guess you folks could try it, and we'll see if anyone notices.
posted by RSaunders at 12:45 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
Pimping Soldiers
I watched the State of the Union last night. Largely uninteresting, except for Bush's "permission slips" line and the poor phrasing/delivery of the Patriot Act line which gave Democrats a chance to applaud its running out next year. Big chuckles.

However, the lasting image of the night for me was of the soldiers in gallery they cut to with every single reference to the military. The first time the camera was on them standing, they at least looked awake. By the end, when the president was having his Reagan-moment about that little 10-yr-old girl in Rhode Island and what she can do to help support the war, the look of complete indifference and outright boredom on their faces seemed to speak volumes.

For the politicians in the audience, the soldiers in uniform are simply a symbol and there's an apparent belief that clapping and nice words make up for being asked to live on the other side of the world in extreme weather, facing extreme hostility, and near complete uncertainty. And on top of that, they're not allowed to leave when their contracts are done, so in effect we have forced conscription, just of people who have already been trained.

I'm sure the soldiers appreciate the sentiment, but it's got to be pretty hollow. These folks finally come back stateside and, while probably honored to be invited, sitting in full dress on national t.v. is probably the last place on earth they wanted to be. They're people who want to be at home (or maybe at the war if that's what gets them excited), but instead have to put up with the president and the networks pimping them for an hour. I bring this topic up not out of animosity towards the president--it has always been gag-inducing regardless of the president--but out of sympathy for the soldiers involved because unlike the normal guests at these things (e.g., a head of state, the guy who started an after-school program, whatever), they had to put up with that crap all night. Kudos to them for not faking smiles and interest in the whole charrade.
posted by RSaunders at 4:57 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
Mr. Delhomme, Meet Mr. Ferragamo
QBs are the most likely to win a Super Bowl MVP. If we had a banquet for past Super Bowl QBs, there'd be a head table with such multiple winners as Montana, Bradshaw, and Starr--folks who not only won multiple Super Bowls but also multiple MVPs. There'd be some other tables for great QBs who won one of each like Elway, Namath, and Staubach, and so on down the gradation, down to the "Huh?" table featuring Trent Dilfer and Doug Williams. Fran Tarkenton and Jim Kelley will be serving drinks.

At a completely different table will be one of QBs who defied all logic to make it to the Super Bowl but who eventually threws a 7 on their craps table of a season. This table would feature the likes of Vince Ferragamo, Tony Eason, and Stan Humphries. I'm anticipating they'll get some company from Carolina's Jake Delhomme.
posted by RSaunders at 9:11 AM ⇒ (0) comments

 
My First Push Poll
Seems things must be heating up for the Clark campaign in Tennessee. So far he is the only candidate to run t.v. ads, he's the first to contact me in a "get out the vote" phone campaign, and today I got to participate in my first "push poll."

Push polls are a form of survey research in which a political team accomplishes two main objectives: they obtain information about what people think, and they spread a mix of half-truths and lies about an opponent and favorable messages about the survey's sponsor. The goal is to get you, by the end of the survey, to change your answer to the question--"Of the following candidates [list of candidates], for whom are you likely to vote?"--from the person you listed originally to the survey sponsor. These are not new. If you followed the 2000 campaign, especially the Bush-McCain race in South Carolina, you know how low it can go.

Judging from this poll, the Clark folks are worried about Dean, with some pro forma questions about Lieberman and some other Tennessee Democrats (Gore, Sasser, and Ford).

What I found particularly shocking is who the survey research team was. The caller identified themselves as from G&S Research (haven't found info on them) and identified it as a division of Peter Hart Associates in D.C.

Well, Peter D. Hart Research Associates is a pretty bigtime research group, with some affiliation to Educational Testing Services (ETS), the people who bring you the SAT and GRE.

As a researcher, I find the idea of push polling galling. The presence of push polling and push pollsters undermines legitimate survey research by eroding people's willingness to participate in academic research, which prevents possible insights into real world phenomena that survey research affords.

However, I find it even more disturbing for the research arm of a supposedly scientific firm like ETS participating, even at arm's length, with this type of polling. I understand they want to make a buck. I understand that it is probably a separate entity from the group that works on the SAT and other educational testing research. But, as somebody who has practiced survey research and uses survey research, I find it repugnant that they would be involved at all. It's like the difference between learning karate from Mr. Miyagi and learning with the Cobra Kai. Intention matters.

posted by RSaunders at 1:49 PM ⇒

 
New Slant Available
Hey, I've got the lead article in this week's Slant. I apologize in advance for the Uranus joke. That's what I get for being an editor in absentia. But, the rest seems to hold up.
posted by RSaunders at 8:49 AM ⇒ (0) comments

 
Buy This Book
America's foremost improvisational comedy director and teacher, Mick Napier, has written a book on scenic improvisation, Improvise: Scene from the Inside Out. Go to the Annoyance Productions website and buy this book through their Amazon link program. I saw a draft copy about 18 months ago, and it's a solid distillation of the Annoyance philosophy in Mick's inimitable style.

For those of you who don't know who Annoyance is, read Whose Improv Is It Anyway?. They're responsible for much of the improv resurgence in the 1990s, as well as such cultural phenomena as "The Real Live Brady Bunch" (though they try to downplay that for obvious reasons). Their signature show was "Co-ed Prison Sluts." The most recognizable actors you'll see are Andy Richter and Jon Favreau, but their influence on improv, sketch, and late night comedy is much greater than the names of actors who have "made it."

If you want to see him in action, go to Second City's site and buy a copy of Second to None, which documents him directing the revue, "Paradigm Lost." "Paradigm" was the first Second City show I saw in person, and it featured current SNL cast members Tina Fey and Rachel Dratch, Conan O'Brien writer Kevin Dorff, Scott Adsit (who you will recognize in the Honda SUV commercials as the guy who's sniffing the wolf and goes chasing after an antelope, reprising a character from that show), the amazing Susan Messing (an ImprovOlympic instructor and Annoyance legend), and (former?) MadTV writer Jim Zulevic.
posted by RSaunders at 5:04 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
Took the Man and His Will to Jingle
AdTrack reveals who the singer is in those Bud Light "Real Men of Genius" ads: he's former Survivor frontman, David Bickler. Yes, that's apparently him in the recording studio belting out the chorus. They don't reveal who the female backup singers are though. I will start the rumour that it's the surviving members of TLC and Scary Spice.
posted by RSaunders at 4:47 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
My Nashville Predators Article
Here is the article I promised you from today's Tennessean. Not the greatest stuff in the world, and some cool stuff got cut. Oh well, I can't be editor of every publication for which I write.
posted by RSaunders at 1:42 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
One More Thing: Silly Monkey
Sheesh, there's nothing like not having much to do and being in front of a computer to make multiple blog entries possible.

I wanted to let you all know about a movie production company I am involved with now: Silly Monkey Productions, the brainchild of twisted genius and auteur Josh Crawford, my friend from my improv days. (Are those behind me? We'll see.) Visit the website and create serious demand for his films.
posted by RSaunders at 3:16 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
You Must Be This Old for This Hotel
USAToday has an article about adults-only hotels that are cropping up. Can open swinging be far behind? We'll see. This would seem to make sense since the only people who can really afford to travel are those without kids. It's nice to see some actual competition in the travel world that acknowledges the childless among us may not want to be subject to the effects of others' poor parenting. If I want that, I'll just go to Wal-Mart.
posted by RSaunders at 3:03 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
Attention TV Addicts
If you're not reading Lisa de Moraes in the Washington Post, you have significant problems. Easily the most entertaining writer around, and she's free. I'm adding her to the links on the left. I'm pulling Rewind and Modern Drunkard. I'll leave Neal Pollack up in the hopes that he returns to blogging at some point.
posted by RSaunders at 2:35 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
Free Speech Zones
My virtual friend Emily in Mississippi at 3x5 posted this note about free speech zones. I'm sure it has probably bubbled up before the courts previously, but I'd love to see a WTO-Seattle-sized protest outside of a Free Speech Zone (it could be Bush, it could be a Dean speech, it could be one the national conventions, I don't care) and have everyone file a suit against them to stir up some legitimate First Ammendment arguments. I wouldn't mind getting arrested for something like that. And heck, apart from the principles, it'd give me something to blog about!
posted by RSaunders at 12:45 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
Land's End Terror Alert Update
We're back down to Maize. Also, anticipate a new issue of Slant shennanigans come Wednesday. I'm working up a few things that I'd love to preview here, but...you'll see it eventually. Here's a tease though: We're going to fucking Mars?

Oh, I got my first "get out the vote" campaign call today, from the Wesley Clark folks. At least somebody cares. I'd like to start a "buy my vote" campaign on this site, but it's probably a nuisance to set up and somebody's probably done it before. Oh yeah, and nobody reads this site.
posted by RSaunders at 12:30 PM ⇒ (0) comments

 
The Good Ol' Days
My new favorite pastime is watching reruns of Super Bowl highlights from the early years of the game and providing commentary in the voice of today's moral majority-esque sports pundits. You know, the folks who decry today's players' lack of respect for the game, lament the poor decision-making of today's young player, and so on. Delicious irony. There's nothing like seeing Bob Griese running for his life like an impala chased by cheetah for a 30 yard loss in Super Bowl VI and chiming in with, "This is something every young quarterback has to learn. You've got to know when to throw the ball away. That's what separates the great quarterbacks of the past from today's players." Or, during Super Bowl V watching a succession of late hits, mutual chokeholds between giant linemen, and a good forearm shiver to the head to inspire commentary like, "You've got to keep your emotions under control in a game like this. You are disrespecting your team and the game every time you do something like that. I mean this is the Super Bowl after all. Back when I played, passions would run hot, but we always managed to keep our emotions in check." Or, watching players jaw at each other after a tackle or a touchdown and crying, "That's just stupid. Act like you've done this before. Act like you've been there before." Not to mention how Joe Namath became a cultural icon for being a mouthy hick who won a Super Bowl, but now Warren Sapp is giving the game a black eye. It's always good for a laugh at the pizza place.

What is also fun about watching these games and comparing it to movies like The Longest Yard and North Dallas Forty. Somehow, with a little distance, the games, or at least the players, don't look too different even though at the time it seemed like they bore no resemblance at all.
posted by RSaunders at 9:27 AM ⇒ (0) comments

 
Hit Parade
I know it has been a while since I posted. Somehow the Britney wedding didn't seem to merit the keystrokes.

One of my running discussions with my songwriter-guitar star buddy at work is whether there are patterns to songs that get cut and become hits. My theory was that you could look for commonalities in chords or beats or whatever (my musical lexicon is poor), and that you could simply look at a frequency distribution or a kind of factor analysis of those songs (or groups of frequency distributions since there are fast hits and ballad hits and so on) and voila, you have a hit record. At least, you'll have a hit tune to which you need to attach words, but the music is the most important part. He contended there may be, but that it'd be too much work (for me) to figure out, and anyway there's a lot of pretty unique stuff. He felt stuff that hits often has something characteristically unique, a slight (or not so slight) deviation from pattern that makes it memorable.

He may have a point, but somebody in the songwriting class in which I'm loosely participating has found a website for a company that does exactly what I proposed. The group is called Hit Song Science. There's nothing like being right to start the day.

Also, it looks like I'll get another freelance piece in the Tennessean this Sunday. This one is just a list of fun facts about hockey and the Nashville Predators. You know I'll post a link when it's available.
posted by RSaunders at 8:12 AM ⇒ (0) comments